Democrats are stoked for their convention where Barack Obama will be our nominee.  There are some folks who are angry about Democrats' Iraq impotence, Clinton's loss or other issues, but for the most part Democrats from around the country are excited.  Barack Obama moved his acceptance to the Denver Bronco's stadium that will likely have fewer empty seats than if John Elway made a comeback.  It looks to be a huge party, and an energizing one that will launch the fall campaign like few others have.

Then there's the Republican convention in Minneapolis St. Paul, where John McCain becomes their standard bearer.  Apparently enthusiasm is lacking not just among rank and file, but among leadership.  Here's Tom Cole, head of the National Republican Congressional Committee, giving advice to candidates:

The NRCC chief discouraged candidates from attending the national convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, saying that spending days there would be a "waste of time," and they would be better off campaigning.

Mike Glover of the Associated Press bureau in Des Moines wrote a piece this week on the huge money advantage that Senator Tom Harkin and Iowa's five U.S. House incumbents have over their opponents.

I'll have more to say on this topic in future posts, but for now I want to note one thing: although nearly all incumbents are able to outspend their opponents, that is not always enough to overcome a national tidal wave toward the other party.

Thanks to you, our UNPRECEDENTED army of 1,791 volunteers, WE WON!

Chairman Chris Van Hollen today announced that Larry Kissell (NC-08) won the 2008 Mobilize for Change: A National Day of Action. Democratic Candidate Gary Peters (MI-09) won an honorable mention on the day when candidates across America bolstered their volunteer base to kicking off the last 100 days of their campaigns. Kissell has won a fundraising email that will be sent on his behalf to our list of three million supporters and activists.

Congratulations to Gary Peters, and all the Democratic challengers who mobilized volunteers last week to contact over a quarter million voters in just one day!  

On Saturday a fundraising solicitation arrived in the mail from Iowa Senator Tom Harkin. It asked me to confirm delivery of the enclosed "supporter card" within ten days, and also to "help keep my 2008 re-election campaign on the road to victory" with a special contribution.

Funny, I wasn't aware that Harkin needed any extra help. Everyone in the election forecasting business has labeled this seat safe for him. The available polling shows Harkin with a comfortable lead.

According to Open Secrets, Harkin had $4.1 million cash on hand at the end of the second quarter. His little-known Republican opponent, Christopher Reed, has raised a total of $11,765 for his Senate campaign and had $292 (two hundred and ninety-two dollars) on hand as of June 30.

Harkin's letter got me thinking that we need a "Use It Or Lose It" campaign for 2008.

Short, but quite sweet.

Don Cravins, Jr. (LA-07
Jill Derby (NV-02)
Vic Wulsin (OH-02)
Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03)
Tom Perriello (VA-05)
Judy Feder (VA-10)

There's been quite a bit of news around Donald Cravins of late. Cravins was a prize DCCC recruit into the LA-07 race, challenging incumbent Republican Charles Boustany for a seat that had until recently belonged to Democrat Chris John.

CQ Politics just today changed their rating of their race to "Republican Favored", indicating the potential strength of a Cravins candidacy. Though he enters the race late, Cravins has a solid political base as a state senator:

Cravins seems certain, at least, to far surpass the 29 percent vote share won by 2006 Democratic nominee Mike Stagg, a little-known and underfinanced candidate. Cravins has warmed up for the House contest by winning a state House seat in 2004, and then winning in 2006 to succeed his namesake father, Don Cravins Sr., in the state Senate. The elder Cravens, who now is mayor of the 7th District city of Opelousas, ran for the congressional seat in 2004 but was eliminated by finishing a close third behind Boustany and Democratic Rep. Willie Landry Mount under the single-ballot primary system then used but since abandoned by Louisiana.

The younger Cravins’ state Senate district, which takes in Opelousas and part of Lafayette, gives him a political base that he stands a good chance of expanding by appealing to a heavily Democratic constituency of his fellow African-Americans, who make up a quarter of the 7th District’s population.

Cravins, running in a district with a strong overall conservative lean, also will emphasize some of his more conservative positions, including his support for gun owners’ rights. Before Boustany won the 2004 race for the seat Democratic Rep. Chris John left open to pursue a Senate campaign that failed, southwestern Louisiana had a longstanding, unbroken tradition of voting conservative Democrats into the House.

As for Jill Derby, she ran an unexpectedly strong campaign in a solidly Republican district against Republican Dean Heller. Derby subsequently took a position as chairwoman of the Nevada Democratic Party, but opted for another run earlier this year (she was widely considered one of, if not the only candidate who could make it a race).

It's an unforgiving district - Bush carried 57% of the vote in both 2000 and 2004 in Nevada's Second - but Derby lost by only five points in 2006, 50% to 45%. Heller has not had a stellar freshman cycle in Congress, and Derby's internal polling likely suggests that she has a decent shot once again.

Neither Cravins nor Derby was a huge surprise on this list, but perhaps the longest-awaited addition is that of Dr. Vic Wulsin, running once again in OH-02 against Daredevil Jean Schmidt.

On paper, Wulsin looks like an obvious choice for Red to Blue. She lost just 51% to 49% in an overwhelmingly Republican district in 2006, and her fundraising has outstripped Schmidt's all year. The DCCC's reluctance to add this race previously is understandable, though, given the district's R+13 tilt.

This is certainly a race to be excited about, given Schmidt's controversial political history, and Wulsin's unabashed progressive stances. It's safe to say that Wulsin is likely the most progressive candidate who could have any kind of reasonable shot at winning in an R+13 district such as this one.

Kathy Dahlkemper is an interesting choice, and her inclusion on this is rather exciting for those who had nearly given up on this race prior to the primary. The original frontrunner in this district, Erie City Councilman Kyle Foust, proved to be a fundraising dud, and lost the primary badly to Dahlkemper, who, while a political neophyte, at least showed the ability to raise a decent amount of money.

Still, while the district is favorable at R+1.6, it was unclear for some time whether Dahlkemper would have the political skills to beat incumbent Phil English. However, Dahlkemper's internal polling numbers show the race deadlocked, an inspiring sign given English's far superior name recognition.

Tom Perriello is rather well known on Daily Kos for his fascinating background in international affairs (having worked in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Afghanistan), and for waging a historically strong campaign against Republican Virgil Goode, in a district that hasn't seen a strong Democratic challenge since...well, since Virgil Goode was a Democrat.

Perriello has touted his Catholic faith as determining his commitment to social justice, which seems like a reasonable play in this rural Virginia district. His fundraising has been top-notch, as he's raised even more so far this cycle than Goode has.

Finally, Judy Feder returns for a second round against Republican Frank Wolf after her 57-43 loss in 2006. This is an exceptionally bold and gutsy play by the DCCC, as not only did Feder lose her 2006 match by a decent margin (though the race was much closer than most of Wolf's have been in the past), but the district, at R+5.5, is not exactly a swing district.

This should be seen as a considerable vote of confidence in Feder as a candidate. Like Perriello, her fundraising has been exceptional this cycle (she's raised well over a million dollars), which may be a central reason for the optimism.

Last Monday July 21st Sarah Topy and her staff at the Scott Harper campaign were looking forward to a week of data processing, fundraising and preparing for a big push in August after the immensely successful event they organized called "13 for the 13th" on July 13th, the single biggest Dem canvass ever held in IL-13.

There was a lot of file updating yet to do and wouldn't you know Monday was the day the state guys finally had the new voter file ready to download. The new VAN basically updated and transformed all our files to new software and it was an all day procedure installing it. The files were still offline Monday night when I showed up at campaign HQ to make some calls. Rich Caparrell the field director was in Maryland for a much deserved long weekend off. We had another canvass scheduled for Saturday but volunteer turnout was expected to be light in the middle of vacation season and especially so soon after the big effort on July 13th. It wasn't downtime but it's as close as they'll get in the next few months on Harper's campaign.

Well that was the plan anyway, but it wasn't to be. Read on for how those best laid plans went out the window in an instant and what happened next.

I received this email from Nancy Pelosi asking for support for the DCCC. Here is my reply:

Nancy,
The DCCC has produced the lamest Congress that money can buy. Is it surprising that only 13 percent of Americans support a Democratic Congress that votes Republican? Porter Goss is going to be in charge of ethics?
And the candidates the DCCC is supporting are even lamer than the ones already in Congress.
Stand up for the principles of the Democratic Party.
Eric

Nancy's message below

I've met Stuart Rothenberg. He seems like a very nice man. However, like my opponent Robin Hayes, I think that maybe Mr. Rothenberg has been in Washington too long to understand that a people powered campaign isn't an urban legend.

Thus in response to Rothenberg's latest column, For House Races now, It's All A Question of Money, I say he doesn't get it. At all.

Kissell’s fundraising this time has been stunningly inadequate. He may still win, but not because of anything he has done in fundraising.

New numbers coming in:

With Obama now firmly in charge of the DNC, and directing his big-dollar donors in its direction, the DNC is finally competitive with the RNC. Combined, the Obama/DNC combo is now near parity with the McCain/RNC pairing. That didn't take long to close the gap. This month, the GOP gets left in the dust, and given that their current heavy spending isn't making much of a difference, that truly is a whiff of desperation you're smelling from the McCain camp.

Meanwhile, our two party committees are crushing their counterparts. The NRCC, in particular, is in woeful straits, and won't be in any position to provide its members or candidates any help whatsoever. Remember -- this is the month that included their big annual Bush fundraiser. They ain't got any more of those on tap.

The NRSC on the other hand has got enough money to play some respectable defense, though little more. The NRCC can't even offer that. But across the board, Democrats will be on the attack this November, with little Republicans can do except fill up some sandbags and hope the rising waters don't crest.

Grassroots Democrats in AZ-01 are organizing to buck the DCCC's decision to nominate Ann Kirkpatrick in our district.

From a desk in Washington, Ann Kirkpatrick must look good on paper: Woman, brief legislative experience, moderate to conservative, long family ties to the district, knows a few Navajo words.

But the people who live here would like to have effective representation in Congress, and a true Democrat, thank you very much.

Here are the candidates positions on issues taken from their websites. You will see why grassroots Democrats prefer Shanker.

The DCCC reserved ad time in 35 districts a few weeks back, and now they have upped the ante with $18 million more in 20 districts.

A critical disclaimer is that the DCCC is reserving time, not buying it. They don't have to use it, and in some cases, they won't. Other districts not on this list, or the previous one, will likely see DCCC ad buys this cycle.

Without further ado:

Democratic-Held Districts:

AL-05, open
AZ-08, Gabrielle Giffords
CA-11, Jerry McNerney
IL-14, Bill Foster
MS-01, Travis Childers

Republican-Held Districts

AL-02, open
CA-04, open
FL-18, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
FL-21, Lincoln Diaz-Balart
FL-25, Mario Diaz-Balart
ID-01, Bill Sali
IL-10, Mark Kirk
IL-11, open
LA-04, open
MO-06, Sam Graves
NJ-03, open
NY-25, open
NY-26, open
NY-29, Randy Kuhl
WA-08, Dave Reichert

Not surprisingly, Democrats are on the offensive.

There hasn't been a diary on this yet, it seems; I just have a couple links I'd like to share, but here's the punchline:

Bill Sali, one of the most embarrassing folks to hold a seat in Idaho's congressional delegation (beating out Chenoweth, et al), still has $126,000 in debt from his narrow victory in 2006 over netroots candidate Larry Grant. He has $250,000 CoH.

Walt Minnick, his Democratic challenger for Idaho's first congressional seat, has raised $286,000 in the last quarter, has $444,000 CoH and carries no debt. The DCCC has added $349,000 to Minnick's campaign for media. For the more schadenfreude-inclined, it may be noted that Sali didn't meet the filing deadline, and has issued nine amendments to earlier reports since June 1.

In Idaho, the state that gave Obama his largest margin of victory, where Al Gore booked one of the state's largest venues to capacity to give a slideshow, where the state's largest city has a Democratic mayor, where Bill Sali won with a margin of less than 6% of the vote in 2006.

We have two upset specials that we are watching very closely. AL-03 and NC-10. The Swing State Project, who in our opinion is one of the best in handicapping horserace politics, has both of these in their races to watch category. Read SSP's Competitive House Ratings

I am asking you to take it a step further and help me make these races garner more national attention. Both Josh Segall (AL-03) and Daniel Johnson (NC-10) have a chance if they can raise enough money to get on the air.

What does a $54 million hammer feel like? According to The Politico, House Republicans are about to find out.

Readers not on the campaign mailing lists: there are two ways you can win a free trip to the convention, accommodations included.

From the Obama campaign:

If you make a donation in any amount before midnight on July 31st, you could be selected to travel to Denver for the final two days of the convention -- including the huge event at the open-air stadium on the final night.

Ten supporters will be selected from all over the country, and each will be able to bring one guest. We'll provide airfare, accommodations, and two days of convention activities -- including a private meeting with Barack before his historic speech....

https://donate.barackobama.com/...

It's well known around these parts that the past few years have seen me change form a frequent critic of the DCCC to one of its biggest supporters. Chris Van Hollen has proven himself to be an aggressive chairman and he is not satisfied to sit back and defend the majority we already have and is working to expand it. They have raised a lot of money and recuited strong candidates all over the country, even ib some of the more Republican parts of South Florida. The only problem is that Red-to-Blue Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz continues to undercut challengers to three right wing Republicans, epsecially Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

Via the Associated Press, the DCCC has reserved $35 million worth of ad time in 31 districts nationwide.

The list of districts (minus two) is below. Most of these races are top-tier, so there are few surprises here. There's certain to be more action, in several other districts, as the campaign rolls on. So if your favorite race is not on this list, don't cry, and don't sweat; it doesn't mean the national party is ignoring it.

In fact, there are no guarantees that all these districts will actually see DCCC ad buys. The DCCC is reserving September and October air time in advance, so as to get discounts on ad time. They may not end up using it.

So without further ado, here is the list, compiled by Swing State Project:

Republican-Held Seats
AK-AL Young
AZ-01 Renzi (open)
CO-04 Musgrave
CT-04 Shays
FL-24 Feeney
MI-07 Walberg
MI-09 Knollenberg
MN-03 Ramstad (open)
MO-09 Hulshof (open)
NC-08 Hayes
NM-01 Wilson (open)
NM-02 Pearce (open)
NV-03 Porter
OH-01 Chabot
OH-15 Pryce (open)
OH-16 Regula (open)
VA-11 Davis (open)

Democratic-Held Seats
AZ-05 Mitchell
FL-16 Mahoney
IN-09 Hill
KS-02 Boyda
KY-03 Yarmuth
LA-06 Cazayoux
NH-01 Shea-Porter
OR-05 Hooley (open)
PA-04 Altmire
TX-22 Lampson
TX-23 Rodriguez
WI-08 Kagen

Per the Associated Press, open-seat races in New Jersey and New York are also targeted.

Again, none of these names are especially shocking; MO-09 is a bit of a (pleasant) surprise, but not a big one. The absence of a couple of high-profile races, like MO-06 (Graves, Republican) or PA-10 (Carney, Democratic), is somewhat notable, but again, just because a particular race isn't on this list doesn't mean there won't be a lot of DCCC action there.

So this would appear to be the starting point for the massive attack planned for the fall elections.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has produced a radio ad for broadcast in 13 Republican held House districts. In the Philadelphia district served by Jim Gerlach KYW-AM is refusing to air this ad:

Brought to you by...
News Corpse
The Internet's Chronicle Of Media Decay.