The Democratic Party is strong in some parts of the country, and it is likely that any Democratic candidate would win the following states: Washington D.C., Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New York, Hawaii, Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey, Delaware, California, Illinois, Vermont, Washington, Maine, and Michigan (200 electoral college votes) [1,2,3]. Because Bush is an incumbent, a few states, such as Illinois, Maine and Michigan may be more competitive in 2004 than they were in 2000.
Bush will win, with almost certainty, the following states: Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Alaska, Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Indiana, Kentucky, Alabama, North Carolina, Georgia, Colorado, Virginia, Louisiana, Arizona, West Virginia, Arkansas, and Tennessee (211 electoral college votes) [4].
Thus, the 2004 Presidential election will be decided in the remaining eleven states: Pennsylvania (21), Minnesota (10), Oregon (7), Iowa (7), Wisconsin (10), New Mexico (5), Florida (27), New Hampshire (4), Missouri (11), Ohio (20) and Nevada (5) (electoral votes for each state are in parentheses, with 127 total Electoral College votes).
Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Oregon, Iowa, Wisconsin will lean towards the Democratic candidate (55 Electoral College votes, bringing the Democratic total to 255). But even winning all these states, the Democratic candidate would still have to win one of the following: 1) Florida, 2) Ohio, 3) Missouri and Nevada, or 4) Missouri and Arkansas.
Since Dean appeals to Nader voters, it is important to analyze Nader's performance in 2000 in the battleground states. Nader did best in states like Vermont, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon, Massachusetts, Hawaii and Rhode Island. In these states, Gore beat Nader by less than a 10 to 1 margin [5, 6].
Conversely, Gore beat Nader by much larger margins in the following states:
Florida - 29.9 times more votes for Gore than Nader
Missouri - 28.8 times more votes for Gore than Nader
Michigan - 25.8 times more votes for Gore than Nader
Illinois - 25.0 times more votes for Gore than Nader
Pennsylvania - 24.0 times more votes for Gore than Nader
Iowa - 21.7 times more votes for Gore than Nader
Nevada - 18.7 times more votes for Gore than Nader
Ohio - 18.5 times more votes for Gore than Nader
(for the data from all states, see Table 1)
The conclusion is that these are battleground states because they lean only slightly towards the Democrats (if at all), and the voters in these states are moderates.
Dean may be competitive with George Bush in the popular vote, but the Electoral College vote would strongly favor Bush against Dean. A vote for Howard Dean in 2004 will have the same effect as a vote for Nader in 2000 - four more years of George W. Bush.
Sources and methodology:
1) Number of Electoral College votes 2001-2010: http://www.fec.gov/pages/elecvote.htm
2) Election results from the 2000 Presidential election:
http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/2000presgeresults.htm
3) Methodology - States where Gore beat Bush by more than 10%.
4) Methodology - States where Bush beat Gore by more than 10%, plus Tennessee (Al Gore's home state).
5) Nader did comparatively well in some states that were easily won by Bush, such as Alaska and Colorado. This analysis only includes states that the Democratic candidate can reasonably win.
6) Nader was not on the ballot in all states. He was not on the ballot in Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Wyoming. http://www.ballot-access.org/2000/status.html
Appendix 1
Quotes from seven out of the eleven Dean switchers on http://switch2dean.com:
Phil - ...I believe that we have to live as though we were on spaceship Earth and we have to be considerate of all life and all people as one single entity...
Jeff - I've just switched back to being a member of the Democratic Party. I was in the Green Party and voted Green in the last two Presidential elections.
Mary - I've been registered Green Party and I'm not voting Green Party in the national election because I believe that Howard Dean can really make a difference for everyday Americans
Tony - I defected, became Independent because it seemed to me, increasingly, that both the Republicans and the Democrats were wings on a bird which was made all about money.
Michael - Ok, well, I'm actually registered with the Green Party and in the last elections, I voted Green all the way.
Robert - I'm turning 18 in 2004 and this will be my first presidential election, and I support Dean because I'm just sick of waking up every day and reading about what Bush & Co. have inflicted upon this world and this country.
Max - My party affiliation and my voting history· I have always been - let me put it this way - I was a Democrat for a while, because everyone in Chicago was a Democrat. Then I moved out to California and I decided after seeing what went on in the Democratic party that being an Independent was a lot better, so right now, I'm an Independent... Well, first of all, I got involved with the campaign because I was involved with the No War on Iraq campaign. I was out there marching, I was carrying signs and I have to tell you - I am a child of the 60s and I was going to college during the Vietnam war and I marched for that ... (No mention of Nader, but switched from Democrat to Independent).
Appendix 2
From: "It's All Nader's Fault And Other Fairy Tales", by Deck Deckert, September 1, 2003, http://www.swans.com/library/art9/rdeck044.html
"...The Democrats forfeited the right to the automatic vote of progressives, liberals, and what Paul Wellstone used to call 'the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party' a long time ago, and there is no sign that they intend to earn it back soon. They have sold their soul to the same fat cats as the Republicans have and totally ignored their base."
Table 1: Results of the 2000 election. States highlighted with (*) were not won or lost by greater than a 10% margin. Data is sorted by the ratio of Bush votes to Gore votes. Source of voting data: Federal Elections Commission http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/2000presgeresults.html
State Ratio of Ratio of
Bush votes to Gore votes to
Gore votes Nader votes
DC 0.105123 16.25596
RI 0.52325 9.959604
MA 0.543464 9.313492
NY 0.58509 16.83275
HI 0.671478 9.493872
CT 0.687603 12.66082
MD 0.710255 21.30974
NJ 0.717876 18.91882
DE 0.762423 21.67666
CA 0.779265 13.99834
IL 0.779993 24.9523
VT 0.80374 7.314322
WA 0.888761 12.11289
ME 0.895812 8.617744
MI 0.899891 25.78766
*PA 0.917601 24.04409
*MN 0.949834 9.221017
*OR 0.990609 9.311917
*IA 0.99351 21.73749
*WI 0.995408 13.21343
*NM 0.998724 13.49504
*FL 1.000184 29.87294
*NH 1.027074 11.99874
*MO 1.070906 28.84949
*OH 1.075482 18.54951
*NV 1.077138 18.65525
TN 1.081723 49.62944
AR 1.118675 31.50048
WV 1.138675 27.66826
AZ 1.14053 15.01459
LA 1.171046 38.7019
VA 1.180894 20.49379
CO 1.197122 8.073878
GA 1.271888 83.10229
NC 1.296949 -
AL 1.358877 37.80009
KY 1.36562 27.54821
IN 1.381224 48.67411
SC 1.389659 27.99807
MS 1.415779 49.81704
KS 1.558651 11.06457
TX 1.561231 17.63661
OK 1.569417 -
SD 1.605165 -
MT 1.751513 5.611409
ND 1.835062 10.0447
NE 1.87187 9.444988
AK 2.118855 2.748252
ID 2.430354 11.27864
WY 2.446173 13.07697
UT 2.536756 5.663961
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